True cost of no-deal Brexit to NHS revealed as black hole of £70 billion identified in health budget over next 15 years - People's Vote

True cost of no-deal Brexit to NHS revealed as black hole of £70 billion identified in health budget over next 15 years

A black hole of up to £70 billion by 2033 has been identified in the Government’s spending plans for the NHS, according to a new analysis of the Government’s own economic forecasts by People’s Vote.

 

The figures, which include the Government’s promised additional £20 billion over the next five fiscal years, show the scale of the funding crisis in the NHS due to the fall in GDP predicted because of Brexit.

The Government’s spending plans commit them to spending the equivalent of 6.32% of GDP on the NHS in England by 2023. Crashing out of the EU with no deal on WTO terms would leave a shortfall in funding for the NHS amounting to £69.2 billion by 2033 when compared with the funds which would be available if we were to stay in the EU.

Even including the Government’s mythical Brexit dividend the shortfall will put intense pressure on hospitals and health services with a Brexit bombshell amounting to more than half the NHS annual budget.

The revelation comes as the NHS celebrates its 70th anniversary, and are proof that Brexit is not the solution to the mounting problems facing our health service.

It is fast becoming clear that the economic hit from Brexit, as well as more difficulties in recruiting healthcare staff from Europe, will damage the NHS rather than benefit it.

 

Dr Paul Williams MP, leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said: 

“The staggering size of the black hole in NHS finances shows the true level of damage a Brexit downturn will inflict on the NHS. The Government’s own spending plans show that they have no answers on the NHS after we leave Europe except a non-existent Brexit dividend.  Independent experts agree the price of Brexit will be higher taxes or more borrowing to keep the NHS solvent.

“The British public – whether they backed Leave or Remain two years ago – did not vote for a bad Brexit that will damage the NHS. Britain cannot afford a Brexit deal that cuts spending on the NHS and sees valued doctors and nurses from the EU walk away from our country. 

“As the NHS celebrates 70 proud years of existence, we must demand a People’s Vote on the final Brexit deal so that the people, not politicians, can decide if Brexit is right for our NHS.” 

/ends

 

Notes to editors

Background

 

  • If we stay in the EU, by 2033, according to the Government’s own analysis for GDP growth and if NHS spending remains at the same levels of GDP as it is projected to be by 2023, then over the next 15 years, total spending on the NHS is projected to be £2.2trn  
  • The Government’s analysis projects three possible outcomes for growth – staying in the EEA, a free trade agreement and a hard Brexit crashing out on WTO terms. On all three measures the NHS faces a shortfall in funding.
  1. If we were to leave the EU but stay in the EEA, due to the Government’s lower GDP forecast projections, then over the next 15 years, the NHS will end up getting between £4.8bn and £22.84bn less than if we were to stay in the EU (on the assumption that NHS spending as a proportion of GDP remains constant from 2023 – 2033)
  2. If we were to leave the EU and trade with the EU through a FTA then due to the Government’s lower GDP growth forecast projections, over the next 15 years, the NHS will end up getting between £27.5bn and £58.3bn less than if we were to stay in the EU (on the assumption that NHS spending as a proportion of GDP remains constant from 2023 – 2033)
  3. If we were to leave the EU and trade with the EU on WTO terms then due to the Government’s lower GDP forecast projections, over the next 15 years, the NHS will end up getting between £44.9bn and £93.1bn less than if we were to stay in the EU (on the assumption that NHS spending as a proportion of GDP remains constant from 2023 – 2033). The middle case scenario sees an NHS shortfall of £69.2 billion. 

 

 

EEA

FTA

WTO

Best Case

-£4,872,466,993

-£27,497,519,601

-£44,950,659,064

Middle Case

-£13,487,125,667

-£42,481,981,624

-£69,268,447,119

Worst Case

-£22,839,233,511

-£58,262,064,969

-£93,118,427,827