A snap YouGov poll shows that almost two-thirds of the British public want MPs to reject Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal and that support for a People’s Vote has surged in the past 24 hours.
The findings show that people split 63% to 37% against the deal - when “don’t knows are excluded - and that 59% now favour a People’s Vote, rising to 64% if the deal is rejected.
The poll of 1,153 people conducted overnight also shows support for staying in the European Union if there is a new referendum is now at 54% - an eight-point lead over Leave and the highest margin since YouGov began doing polling with the People’s Vote last summer.
Publication of this snap poll comes as the People’s Vote campaign begins a new drive to make sure that MPs know the strength of feeling among constituents against the bad Brexit being delivered and in favour of the public being given the final say.
Since the march in London on October 20, more than 120,000 emails, letters and postcards have been sent to MPs in every constituency.
The survey shows deep public disquiet over the way Brexit has unfolded. A total of 85% now believe that the process has been a mess with just 7% disagreeing. And three-quarters of voters (75%) believe that the Brexit being delivered is “nothing like that which was promised two years ago,” with again just 7% disagreeing.
The deal is rejected even by a majority of Leave voters with those who have made up their minds dividing 53-37 per cent against the proposals.
Across a range of different tests and the impact of this proposed deal on their lives.
- By a margin of more than four-to-one (47% to 11%) the economy will be weaker.
- By a margin of more than six-to-one (39% to 6%) that the economy will be weaker.
- By a margin of almost ten-to-one (43% to 4%) that taxes will go up.
- By a margin of almost three-to-one (43% to 4%) that the NHS will get worse.
- By a margin of more than three-to-one (46% to 15%) that children will be worse off.
Today the People’s Vote campaign enters a short campaign period with launch of a new website - NotBuyingIt.uk – which uses innovative campaign technology first used by campaigners in the US midterm elections earlier this month - to allow people to send individualised messages to their MPs.
The tool will be promoted via social media advertising and is expected to reach over a million people in the UK. The site is part of a campaign dedicated to pressuring MPs of all parties to both reject the Government’s dodgy deal and to raise support in Parliament for a People’s Vote once the deal has been rejected.
Today the People’s Vote campaign has sent five advertising vans across London and Manchester with the slogan “We’re Not Buying It”. They will spend all day circulating the cities - including through the heart of Westminster - as Theresa May made her statement to Parliament.
The campaign is already having a tangible effect. MPs and Ministers who are wavering in their support for any deal have reported privately to the People’s Vote campaign that they have been deluged by correspondence by constituents who will not forgive them for voting for any deal that would make them worse off. At one point during the launch of the #NotBuyingIt site at the People’s Vote rally on Tuesday night, 400 people per minute were using the site to send emails to their MPs.
Following the publication earlier this week of MRP polling across the country which was sent to MPs, People’s Vote will begin further polling in dozens of individual constituencies to show MPs a detailed picture of how their constituency has changed since the vote in 2016 and the strength of support for a People’s Vote.
Campaigning in coming weeks will intensify in the ground campaign where there are now more than 170 local groups who support the People’s Vote which have been mobilised in every region and nation with constituency activity ensuring that MPs get sent a clear message.
The campaign has distributed 20,000 “Knock and Drop” surveys to our groups all over the country to canvass and lobby their local MP, while groups continue street stalls and town-centre campaigning on action days across the country. Meanwhile hundreds of “letter writing parties” have been held all over the country hosted by local Peoples Vote groups.
Owen Smith, the Labour MP and a leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said:
“The YouGov snap poll overnight shows that this lousy Brexit deal is one that will please nobody and that across a series of difference tests, people have worked out that it will leave them poorer, with worse public services and fewer opportunities. Theresa May in an effort to force her party's headbangers into line has said if the deal gets voted down there might be ‘no Brexit’. Today we will be pressing her for confirmation that means a People’s Vote with an option to stay in the European Union. The real choice facing Britain is one between this dodgy deal that no one is buying and the deal we’ve already got inside the EU.”
Peter Kellner, one of Britain’s most respected pollsters and a past president of YouGov, said:
“These results are bad news for Theresa May. Voters believe overwhelmingly that the deal is nothing like what was promised two years ago. Although many voters are digesting the details and are not yet sure how MPs should vote, those who have made up their minds want MPs to reject the deal by 63-37 per cent.
“Other results help to explain this stark verdict. By more than two-to-one, voters say that Brexit “is turning into a disaster for your businesses, our public services and the future of our young people”. YouGov’s results also show that the deal has increase pessimism about the consequences of Brexit. Already in September, more people (44%) expected the economy to be weaker than stronger (21%). That two-to-one gulf has widened to a four-to-one chasm. There has also been an increase in pessimism on the NHS, the standard of living, and the future prospects for today’s children, if Brexit goes ahead. In net terms, subtracting pessimists from optimists, the figures are: Standard of living: net pessimism in September: minus 25; now minus 33. NHS: September minus 20, now minus 26; future prospects for today’s children: September minus 24, now minus 31.
“At the same time, support for a People’s Vote has increased, from 55 per cent support / 45 per cent opposed in September (excluding don’t knows) to 59-41 per cent today. And if Parliament rejects the Prime Minister’s deal, supporters of a new public vote outnumber opponents by almost two-to-one: 64-36 per cent.”
Notes to editors:
All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 1,153 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 14th - 15th November 2018. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
Full fieldwork can be found here: Link_snap_poll_151118.xls
The five advertising vans will spend the day circulating routes from 0800 Hrs to 1600 Hrs:
- Parliament Square, Whitehall, Millbank
- Oxford Street, Portland Place and Euston Road
- Farringdon and Grays Inn Road (morning) Brentford and Osterley (afternoon)
- Kensington, Holland Park and Earls Court
- Salford docks and Manchester City Centre
A Hi-Res version of the new advert from People’s Vote is here: Ad_van_poster_link.jpg