New OBR figures show Brexit mess is costing working people £11 a week – before we’ve even left - People's Vote

New OBR figures show Brexit mess is costing working people £11 a week – before we’ve even left

The new OBR forecast figures for average weekly earnings published alongside the Budget yesterday (Monday) show that the Government’s Brexit mess is costing the average worker in Britain £11 a week in lost wages.

Brexit means that weekly wages are currently £11 lower than they would have been, which means the average person loses out on £572 in earnings annually. Since 2016, this effect has left British workers £1,144 out of pocket.

In 2016 Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, leading figures of the Vote Leave campaign, promised during the referendum that “wages will be higher for working people” after a Brexit vote.

 Chuka Umunna MP, leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said:

“While the Brexit elite in Westminster argue among themselves, the mess they are getting us in is already hurting working people across Britain.

“Losing £11 a week in wages is the price ordinary people are paying for the ideological Brexit project of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

“Nobody in Britain voted to be poorer as a result of Brexit. As more and more promises made during the referendum are proven wrong, it’s clear that we need a People’s Vote on Brexit to sort out this mess.”

/ends

 

Notes to editors

During the referendum campaign Vote Leave promised that Brexit would mean higher wages. In a statement published in The Sun, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and Gisela Stuart said that “wages will be higher for working people outside the EU” (Vote Leave, 31 May 2016, link)

But it is now clear that Brexit has already meant that working people in Britain are £1,144 worse off as a result of lower earnings since 2016.

 

Methodology

The last OBR forecast that assumed remaining in the EU as a basis was in March 2016. This analysis uses that forecast, from a basis of Q1 2016 ONS statistics for average weekly earnings (Office for National Statistics, 16 October 2018, link) – the “Remain Scenario” (Office for Budget Responsibility, March 2016, link).

The analysis then contrasts this with average weekly earnings as reported by the ONS until 2017 (Office for National Statistics, 16 October 2018, link), and the latest OBR forecast for growth in 2018 – the “Brexit Scenario” (Office for Budget Responsibility, October 2018, link).

The difference between the two figures, as set out below, is the cost to average weekly earnings caused by the Government’s chaotic and shambolic handling of Brexit.

 

Average weekly earnings

 

 

End of 2015

End of 2016

End of 2017

End of 2018

Remain Scenario

£461

£473

£490

£507

Brexit Scenario

£461

£469

£483

£496

Difference

£0

-£4

-£7

-£11


Average yearly earnings

 

 

End of 2015

End of 2016

End of 2017

End of 2018

Remain Scenario

23972

24596

25480

26364

Brexit Scenario

23972

24388

25116

25792

Difference

£0

-£208

-£364

-£572