Commenting on the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, Alison McGovern MP, leading supporter of a People’s Vote, said:
“Brexit is already doing deep and lasting damage to our economy in lost investment, growth and confidence. Estimates from a range of experts, including Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England and analysts at the Centre of European Reform, have calculated that the British economy is between £40 billion and £47 billion smaller than it would have been had we voted to stay in the EU in 2016. This is the equivalent of between £600 and £710 for every man woman and child in the UK.
“This translates to between £14 billion and £17 billion in lost revenue for the Treasury – more than the entire police budget for England and Wales. Despite Philip Hammond today saying “public finances continue to improve”, he cannot hide the fact that the Brexit process is starving our vital public services of the resources they so desperately require.
“Going ahead with any form of Brexit now when so much is still to be negotiated merely guarantees that this chaos will continue to hurt our economy and communities. Now that we have new facts about the real cost of Brexit, it’s only fair to demand a real say and a new public vote on Brexit to provide the clarity we all need.
“It’s clear that the only reasonable way forward is to put this to the people.”
Notes to editors:
On the GDP figure:
The Centre for European reform has calculated that, to September 2018, the Brexit process has cost the UK 2.3% of GDP growth (link). This amounts to about £47 billion a year in lost activity.
Born et al reached a similar conclusion, saying that Brexit had cost the UK around 2% of GDP by the second quarter of 2018 (link). This amounts to about £41 billion a year in lost activity.
A UBS report published in September 2018 said GDP is 2.1% lower than it would have been had we not left the European Union (link).
Mark Carney said in May that the cost of Brexit was running at 2% of GDP. He said this was the equivalent of £900 per person per year (link).
In February 2019, Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee also estimated the loss to GDP at 2%. He said “That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer it in bus units, it’s £800m a week” (link).
On the cost to the Treasury figure:
The Centre for European Reform has calculated that the effect of lower GDP on public finances was running at £17 billion a year by September 2018, or £320 million a week (link).
The tax to GDP ratio in the UK is thought to be 34.6% (link), meaning that a range of £40 billion to £47 billion in lost GDP approximates to between £14 billion and £16 billion a year in lost tax revenues.
On the police budget:
The total police budget in 2018/19 is £12.3 billion (link).