The Tony Blair Institute has tonight published a report on the impact of Brexit on the services sector of the British economy.
Using research commissioned from the NIESR, “Brexit and the UK’s Services Trade” finds that a WTO-only trading relationship would mean that GDP would be 4.93 per cent lower by 2030 than under a ‘soft Brexit’.
Of this 4.93 per cent reduction, 2.13 percentage points would be accounted for by a fall in trade in services, with only 1.1 percentage point by the reduction in trade in goods. Under the Chequers scenario total GDP is predicted to be 4.13 per cent less, where the reduction due to the loss of services trade with the EU accounts for 1.94 percentage points. In both scenarios, there are effects on GDP arising from other changes such as a reduction in migration.
Commenting, Chris Leslie MP, leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said:
"Theresa May's bad Brexit deal would offer next to nothing for the 80% of our economy that is the service sector.
"In a £2 trillion economy losing the 0.4% of annual growth this report points to means throwing away over £150 million a week. Nobody stuck that on the side of their bus.
"With prices already rising in the shops and doctors and nurses leaving the NHS, Brexit is already hurting our economy and damaging our public services and this report suggests there is much worse to come.
“Nobody voted for any of that and we must have a People's Vote on any Brexit deal."